EUR / USD forecasts: continue to see volatility
The euro initially tried to rally to kick off the trading session on Thursday, but gave up the gains as we eventually fell back to the 1.18 level. The market seems to continue to see a lot of volatility, and with the strengthening of the US dollar overall, I think it’s very likely that we will see the euro suffer. In addition, we have been grinding a lower and descending channel for a while, which of course deserves special attention.
At this point, I think going below the 1.18 level opens up the possibility of a dip to the 1.17 level that had been supported, followed by the 1.16 level. The 1.16 level was strong support and caused a massive rebound before so I think that’s ultimately where we were going to be looking to retest. Collapsing below that means something disturbing has happened and the greenback will take it all back. That much, the US dollar index threatens a major downtrend line, and if it were to exceed, things could change quickly around the world in multiple assets, not just this one. One thing is for sure, the US dollar has been extraordinarily bullish on selling pressure over the past few weeks.
The eurozone of course has its own problems, not least of which is the fact that factory orders in Germany have fallen off a cliff when it comes to exports, and this could be a sign of serious problems in the future. globally, not just on the continent. Remember that Germany is a large part of the European Union and by far the largest part of the GDP. If Germany is going to stop exporting, the European Union is in serious trouble. In addition, bond yields in Germany are falling again, so all things being equal, people would rather have US bonds that offer at least some type of yield, which during the session the 10-year note. fell just below the 1.3% level, which is paltry. but much better than what we have seen in Germany for some time as the ECB continues to buy bonds in this part of the world. It’s more or less a relative game, and right now it looks like the United States is outperforming.