Elon Musk says FSD ‘Tech is probably ready in a few months’, beta button coming next week with 10.1, access granted only with good insurance data
If you own a Tesla and have watched the FSD Early Access Driver Beta Videos, chances are you’re excited to have it in your own car. The car’s ability to take corners is something we haven’t had the chance to have in our cars before, so naturally this innovation is exciting.
With the software having made big improvements over the past year and FSD beta releases now every 2-3 weeks, owners around the world want to know when they will have the opportunity for FSD to navigate the city streets. .
Currently FSD beta users have v10 in their cars and it was a big improvement over v9.2. The ability to navigate the city streets is impressive and it seems like the daily commute is pretty well under control. Naturally with new technology the testers are pushing the limits of what is capable at the moment and we have seen the limitation of the current version and it makes mistakes.
This raises the question of how Tesla is going to deploy this software in a thoughtful way in order to grow and learn more about FSD in different locations and peripheral cases. Obviously, Tesla is taking a US-centric approach, but recently extended the beta of FSD to Canada.
Asked about an expansion, Musk said he believes the technology will likely be ready in a few months. Given the delays in Musk’s previous deadlines, it’s safe to assume we’re really talking about 2022 before a serious international deployment. The latter part of his response is also interesting and may be the biggest challenge, with regulatory approval likely to be a slow minefield, made jurisdiction, by jurisdiction across the world. Progressive states and countries would set their benchmarks for autonomous vehicle safety testing and be ready for the arrival of technology.
As for the beta, Musk says Beta 10 users will receive 10.01.1 today, which will be the first time we’ll see an underlying release. This suggests that it could be a critical bug fix and is certainly unlikely to offer any new features. What will bring improvements is the next intermediate version, with 10.1 scheduled for next Friday.
This v10.1 release will also coincide with the much anticipated “Button” to request beta. This beta request button is due to ship in a production version, so expect all Tesla to receive a new version. This button will be available in the Service section of the car’s touchscreen.
Hopefully Tesla shares data on how many people are requesting the beta once it becomes available. If 25% of Tesla owners buy FSD and 25% of them hit the button and 80% get the beta, we could be looking at 10-20,000 users, a significant jump from the 2-3,000 beta testers. that we have today.
So who can claim the beta? Until now, it was largely unknown how the beta expansion would be performed, now we have a few more details.
Musk says the Beta button will ask for permission to rate your driving behavior using the Tesla Insurance Calculator. Presumably, that means your driving data, from your history (or over the next 7 days) that would be evaluated by Tesla if you purchased insurance through them. As far as we know, that doesn’t mean you have to have your insurance with Tesla to apply for the beta, but you have to behave.
Tristan (@rice_fry) has done a great job detailing Tesla’s insurance policy data points, which should give you a good idea of what they expect to call “good behavior”.
When participating in FSD Beta you are still responsible for the car and must be diligently careful. The cabin’s internal camera will be used to monitor the driver to ensure they are not on their phone and monitoring the environment in front of them. If you exceed a threshold set by Tesla, you can and will be kicked out of the FSD beta.
It is a nervous time for the development of autonomous systems with an extension of the FSD Beta program, you increase the risk of accidents (usually due to the fact that the driver has not detected any errors). Since the conditions for Beta Access are that only the owner uses it, there is a pretty motivating factor to use it wisely, as long as it is your own car and if it breaks down because you did not intervene, you will be responsible for it.
Each of the participants who eventually get the beta will not only have purchased their Tesla, but also purchased FSD.
For Andrej and the team, it’s show time. Good luck.