Despite 26% growth in the past month, CRISPR stock may continue to rise
[Updated 6/15/2021] Increase in CRSP shares
The share price of CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CRSP), a biotechnology gene-publishing company focused on developing gene-based drugs for human disease, has seen a solid 26% rise in the past twenty-one trading days, and we believe the equity may continue to recover in the short term. Last week, CRSIPR announced positive clinical trial data for CTX001, a unique potential therapy developed by Vertex Pharmaceuticals and CRISPR for patients with transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia and severe sickle cell anemia. Usually, patients with beta thalassemia depend on regular blood transfusions, while patients with sickle cell disease experience vaso-occlusive crises (VOCs). After being treated with CTX001, none of the TDT patients required transfusions, and all of the SCD patients were VOC-free. This is an important development for CRISPR, and the company last month mentionned that Vertex would pay him $ 900 million for an additional 10% of profits from sales of CTX001. If approved, CTX001 will be a successful drug.
Now that CRSP stock has risen 26% in twenty-one trading days, will it continue on its upward trajectory or is a dip imminent? Based on historical performance, there is a 60% chance that the CRSP share will rise in the next month. Out of 189 cases over the past five years, CRISPR stock has risen in twenty-one days by 26% or more, 113 of them resulted in an increase in the stock of CRSPs during the next month period (twenty-one trading days). This historic trend reflects 113 out of 189, or around 60% chance of winning in CRSP shares in the coming month. Despite rising 26% in the last month or so, CRSP stock is still down 20% since the start of the year. A few months ago, we discussed that investors might get better levels to enter CRSP stock after rising 3 times from $ 62 in June 2020 to $ 210 in January 2021. The stock CRSP is now down 40% from its January highs, and we believe the stock will rise in the near term. See our analysis on CRISPR Stock Chances of increasing for more details.
Twenty-one days: CRSP 26%, vs S & P500 4.7%; Outperformed market
(15% chance of event; 60% chance of increase over next 21 days)
- CRISPR Therapeutics AG shares increased by 26% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market rise (S & P500) of 4.7%
- A change of 26% or more in twenty-one trading days is a 15% probability event, which has occurred 189 out of 1,283 times in the past five years
- Of these 189 cases, the stock experienced a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 113 occasions.
- This indicates a 60% probability that the stock will rise over the next twenty-one trading days
Five days: CRSP 12%, vs. S & P500 0.6%; Outperformed market
(12% chance of event; 55% chance of increase over next five days)
- CRISPR Therapeutics AG shares increased by 12% over a five-day trading period ending 6/11/2021, versus the broader market rise (S & P500) of 0.6%
- A change of 12% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 12% probability event, which has occurred 158 out of 1,284 times in the past five years
- Of those 158 cases, the stock saw a positive movement over the next five trading days on 87 occasions.
- This indicates a 55% chance that the stock will rise over the next five trading days
[Updated 3/26/2021] Update of the CRSP
Last month we discussed why investors might want to wait for better levels to enter CRSP stock. Since then, the stock has seen a correction of over 28%. There hasn’t been a major development to cause investor panic. But the big 5x rally from $ 34 in March 2020 to $ 160 last month likely resulted in a profit reservation at higher levels. While the stock is still up 3 times from the March 2020 lows, the levels now look attractive to long-term investors.
Looking at the recent drop, the 14% drop in CRSP stock over the past ten days compares to a 1% drop seen in the larger S&P 500 index. Looking ahead, on the Based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past few years, we believe there is a 59% chance that a get up in CRSP shares during the following month (twenty-one trading days). Out of 197 cases over the past 4 years, CRISPR Therapeutics AG share has fallen 7.3% or more over 5 days, 112 of them resulted in an increase in the stock of CRSPs during the next month period (21 trading days). This historic trend reflects 112 out of 197, or about 59% chance of winning in CRSP shares in the coming month. See our analysis on Chances of increasing CRISPR shares for more details.
[Updated 2/17/2021] Buy or fear CRISPR shares after the fourth quarter?
A few months ago, we explained why the resumption of CRSP actions could continue given the positive developments around CTX001, an experimental gene therapy for people with sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia. CRSP stock has extended its rally of levels from around $ 107 in mid-November 2020 to $ 161 currently. Additionally, the stock has risen 5 times from levels of $ 34 at the end of March 2020 – when markets hit a low following the spread of Covid-19. Now can the rally continue? We do not think so. While CRSP stock has momentum on its side, given the strong 5x rally in less than a year, investors may want to wait for better levels to get into the stock.
Looking at the recently released fourth quarter numbers, revenue of $ 0.4 million was down 99.5% year-on-year and missed the consensus of $ 2.2 million. Note that 2019 revenues were higher due to Vertex Pharmaceuticals collaboration revenues as part of the co-development of CTX001. The company’s fourth-quarter GAAP EPS of ($ 1.50) missed estimates by $ 0.23. Given that the results are below street estimates and the stock is seeing a massive rally, CRISPR appears to be vulnerable to short-term downside risk. Curious about the possibility of a hike in the next quarter? Check CRSP Stock AI Dashboard: Rise and Fall Chances for a variety of scenarios on how the CRSP stock might evolve.
[Updated 11/17/2020] CRISPR stock market rally
Despite a sharp 3-fold increase from the lows of March 23 of this year, at the current price of around $ 107 per share, we believe CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ
Part of the 4-fold increase over the past 2 years is justified by the roughly 7-fold growth seen in CRISPR’s revenue from 2017 to 2019, while its revenue per share increased 5-fold to reach 5, $ 32 in 2019, up from $ 1.02 in 2017. This lag can be attributed to a 36% increase in the total number of shares outstanding due to share issuances. Despite the growth in RPS, the company’s Multiple P / S has experienced a contraction. We believe the stock is likely to see a rise despite the recent rise and the potential weakness of a recession triggered by the Covid epidemic. Our dashboard, ‘What factors motivated 350% of the CRISPR therapeutic stock between 2017 and now?‘, has the underlying numbers.
CRISPR’s P / S multiple fell from 23x in 2017 to 11x in 2019. While the company’s P / S is now 20x (based on the leakage RPS), there is potential for upside given the expected growth of RPS in the coming years, as we discuss. below.
So what is the likely trigger and timing of the upside?
There isn’t much to see for CRISPR’s third-quarter sales of $ 0.2 million, compared to $ 212 million in the previous year’s quarter, which included Vertex’s collaboration revenue. Pharmaceuticals in the co-development of CTX001, an experimental gene therapy for people with sickle cell disease. and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia. So, with little revenue this year, what is the buzz around CRISPR stock, given that it has tripled in recent months? It all comes down to its pipeline. The company is working to mass produce cell therapies that will work in anyone. Currently, cell therapies are made from cells derived from human donors or from a patient’s own cells, making the process long and cumbersome to develop the drug. If CRISPR is successful in its approach, it would mean ready-to-use cell-based drugs developed using cells from various groups of donors. The company’s internal treatment CTX110 for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma has shown positive results in phase 1 trials. CTX001, which the company is jointly developing with Vertex, has received a rare pediatric disease designation from the US FDA. Overall, the value of CRISPR stock should be viewed only from its potential pipeline. The CTX110 alone, if approved, could generate sales of over $ 1.5 billion. The estimated revenues for 2020 and 2021 are $ 2.5 million and $ 12.7 million.
CRISPR is a high growth stock and also carries high risk. There could be a case where therapies in the CRISPR pipeline are not proving effective. In addition, we do not know the timeframe from which the products will be ready to be sold. That said, investors willing to be patient will likely be rewarded with positive clinical trial data for these therapies.
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