Another day of high volatility, general bond prices rise on risk aversion, oil and commodities
General bond prices are up on Tuesday afternoon (12). For fixed rate bonds, rates increase by up to 12 basis points.
According to Flavio Serrano, chief economist at Greenbay Investimentos, interest rates fell during the day due to the positive surprise of the US consumer price index (CPI).
CPI accelerated and rose 1.2% in March, in line with market expectations. “But underlying inflation has been better than expected, with lower used car rental rates,” Serrano says.
However, the economist notes that throughout the day, risk aversion increased due to escalating tensions in Russia and rising oil and commodity prices. The dollar slowed down and interest rates rose.
On the market radar, Serrano cites Congress’s voting agenda on emergency aid highlights, in terms of increasing in value or making the aid permanent, which could have implications for investors. future interest hearings.
Within direct treasury, medium-term fixed rate securities recorded the highest rate increase. The 2029 Fixed Rate Treasury offered an annualized return of 11.92%, down from 11.80% seen on Monday (11).
While, the 2025 Fixed Rate Cash and the 2033 Fixed Rate Cash, with semi-annual interest, provided annualized returns of 12.10% and 11.98% respectively higher than 12.05% and 11.87% for the previous cycle.
In inflation-linked bonds, the largest rate increases occurred in 2035, 2045 and 2055, which rose 7 basis points.
IPCA+2035 Treasury and IPCA+2045 provided an actual return of 5.61% as of 3:20 p.m., up from 5.54% posted yesterday.
The Treasury IPCA + 2055, with semi-annual interest, showed an actual gain of 5.74%, compared to 5.67% in the previous session.
For the second day in a row, trading on Treasury Direct was suspended early in the morning. The outage on Tuesday (12) lasted over an hour. A trading stop occurs to prevent an investor from entering into trades that do not properly reflect market conditions.
Check prices and quotes for all government securities available for purchase on Treasury Live posted on Tuesday afternoon (12:00):
Benefits in Brazil
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announced this Tuesday (12) that the Brazilian services sector It fell 0.2% month on month, disappointing market expectations which expected growth of 0.8%. In addition, the International Statistical Institute (IBGE) announced that the services sector fell in January by 1.8% compared to December, and not by 0.1%, as previously reported.
In 2020, the service sector accounted for around 70% of Brazil’s GDP. After a small period of optimism in recent months, with an appreciation goods And the riyal, some analysts already expect the upward adjustments to stop.
Data from the Monthly Services Survey (PMS) was negatively surprising. The negative tone of the result comes not only from the unexpected drop in February, but also from the revision of the January data”, comments Luca Mercadante, economist at Rio Bravo Investimentos.
Mercadante notes that the performance of information services and “other services” had a negative impact on the index – the two activities then fell by 1.2% and 0.9%.
It also indicates that the services provided to families were virtually nil to zero, with an increase of 0.1%, when a stronger increase was expected, due to the decrease in cases and deaths caused by Covid-19. . “Even with the end of the effects of the Omicron wave seen in January, services are still feeling the drop in real income caused by rising inflation and the effects of monetary policy conducted over the past year,” he says.
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs welcomes the small expansion of the family services sector. “We expect some of the services sectors still impacted by Covid (particularly household services) to recover further in the coming months, alongside further progress in the Covid scenario and further fiscal stimulus. “, they comment.
On the international scene, the most important are the CPI figures for the United States, which accelerated and rose by 1.2% in March compared to February, in line with expectations, according to data released by the ministry. Labor Tuesday (12), after advancing 0.8% in the previous month. The increase is 8.5% over one year.
Core inflation (which does not include food and energy) increased by 0.3% in March compared to February, lower than expected. In the annual comparison, the highest level was 6.5%.
The Refinitiv consensus indicated a 1.2% increase in the full index month-on-month and 8.4% year-on-year.
As for the net result, the forecast was a 0.5% advance compared to February, leading to an expected increase of 6.6% compared to the same period in 2021.
Global oil prices accelerated on Tuesday, reversing a statement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that downgraded the outlook for global oil demand growth. The reasons given were the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation and the exacerbation of COVID-19 in China.
West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery rose 6.63% to $100.54 at 2:45 p.m.; While Brent crude for June rose 6.15% to $104.54.